Incerto

Incerto

          
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About the Book

LE HASARD SAUVAGE Comment la chance nous trompe Sommes-nous vraiment capables de distinguer le genie visionnaire de l'imbecile chanceux ? Pourquoi nous obstinons-nous a vouloir trouver des messages senses dans des evenements dus au seul hasard ? Et n'aurions-nous pas une facheuse tendance a ordonner le reel selon une routine mentale biaisee, plutot que de le voir tel qu'il est, avec toute son incertitude ? S'inspirant de disciplines aussi diverses que la litterature, la philosophie, la theorie des probabilites, la science cognitive et la finance, Nassim Nicholas Taleb montre comment notre esprit nous conduit a voir le monde, et en particulier les mecanismes de la Bourse, comme beaucoup plus previsible qu'il ne l'est... LE CYGNE NOIR La puissance de l'imprevisible Quel est le point commun entre l'invention de la roue, Pompei, le krach boursier de 1987, Harry Potter et Internet ? Pourquoi ne devrait-on jamais lire un journal ni courir pour attraper un train ? Que peuvent nous apprendre les amants de Catherine de Russie sur les probabilites ? Pourquoi les previsionnistes sont-ils pratiquement tous des arnaqueurs ? Ce livre revele tout des Cygnes Noirs, ces evenements aleatoires, hautement improbables, qui jalonnent notre vie: ils ont un impact enorme, sont presque impossibles a prevoir, et pourtant, a posteriori, nous essayons toujours de leur trouver une explication rationnelle. Prophetique, Taleb nous exhorte a ne pas tenir compte des propos de certains experts, et nous montre comment cesser de tout prevoir ou comment tirer parti de l'incertitude. LE LIT DE PROCUSTE Aphorismes philosophiques et pratiques Dans la mythologie grecque, Procuste avait la particularite de couper les membres des ses hotes ou de les ecarteler pour qu'ils rentrent dans le lit qu'il leur offrait. Telle est, aux yeux de Nassim Taleb, notre societe qui entend modifier les hommes pour qu'ils satisfassent les contraintes technologiques, reprochant a la realite de ne pas etre conforme aux modeles economiques. Renouant avec la forme classique de l'aphorisme, Taleb pointe avec humour et sans se prendre au serieux les travers de notre monde tout en faisant l'eloge des valeurs antiques du courage, de l'elegance et de la lucidite. ANTIFRAGILE Les bienfaits du desordre Le hasard nous rend meilleurs. Avec ce provocant paradoxe, Taleb nous offre un enseignement d'une portee revolutionnaire: comment non seulement surmonter les cataclysmes de notre temps - ces Cygnes Noirs qui fondent sur un homme, une culture, une civilisation, les bouleversent et les reduisent a neant -, mais en faire une source de bienfaits. De meme que le corps humain se renforce a mesure qu'il est soumis au stress et a l'effort, de meme que les mouvements populaires grandissent lorsqu'ils sont reprimes, de meme le vivant en general se developpe d'autant mieux qu'il est confronte a des facteurs de desordre, de volatilite ou a quoi que ce soit a meme de le troubler. Cette faculte a non seulement tirer profit du chaos mais a en avoir besoin pour devenir meilleur est l'antifragile . Promenant son lecteur dans les rues tonitruantes de Brooklyn, les chemins de la pensee antique ou les meandres des neurosciences avec autant d'aisance, ce livre laisse une question en suspens: etes-vous pret a devenir antifragile ?


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9782251447582
  • Publisher: Les Belles Lettres
  • Publisher Imprint: Les Belles Lettres
  • Language: French
  • Returnable: N
  • Weight: 700 gr
  • ISBN-10: 225144758X
  • Publisher Date: 17 May 2018
  • Binding: Paperback
  • No of Pages: 1740
  • Sub Title: Le Hasard Sauvage / Le Cygne Noir / Le Lit de Procuste / Antifragile

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