Nearly everything you know about China is wrong! Yes, within a decade, China will have the world’s largest economy. But that is the least important thing to know about China. In this enlightening book, two of the world’s leading China experts turn the conventional wisdom on its head, showing why China’s economic growth will constrain rather than empower it. Pioneering political analyst Damien Ma and global economist Bill Adams reveal why, having 35 years of ferocious economic growth, China’s future will be shaped by the same fundamental reality that has shaped it for millennia: scarcity. Ma and Adams drill deep into Chinese society, illuminating all the scarcities that will limit its power and progress. Beyond scarcities of natural resources and public goods, they illuminate China’s persistent poverties of individual freedoms, cultural appeal, and ideological legitimacy — and the corrosive loss of values and beliefs amongst a growing middle class shackled by a parochial and inflexible political system. Everyone knows “the 21st century is China’s to lose” — but, as with so many things that “everyone knows,” that’s just wrong. Ma and Adams get beyond cheerleading and fearmongering to tell the complex truth about China today. This is a truth you need to hear — whether you’re an investor, business decision-maker, policymaker, or citizen.

Table of Contents:
Introduction 1 Economic scarcity 6 1. Resources: While supplies last 6 2. Food: Malthus on the Yangtze 6 3. Labor: Where did all the migrants go? 7 Social scarcity 7 4. Welfare: Socialism with Chinese .actually no, not socialism at all 7 5. Education: Give me equality but not until after my son gets into Tsinghua 7 6. Housing: Home is where the wallet is 8 Political scarcity 8 7. Ideology: The unbearable lightness of the Yellow River Spirit 8 8. Values: What would Confucius do? 9 9. Freedom: Keep on rockin’ in the firewalled world 9 Part I  Economic Scarcity 13 Chapter 1  Resources: While supplies last 15 The Panda Boom 19 It’s the CPI, stupid 20 Smashing the iron rice bowl 22 Under the mattress: Savings gluttony 24 The world ain’t so flat, or, good neighbors near and far 26 Bamboo consumption continued 28 Land: So much yet so little 29 Ownership society with Chinese characteristics 30 Legacy problems 32 Energy: From industry to transport and residential 34 Import dependence as Achilles’ heel 39 Water 41 Thirsty industry 42 H2O politics 46 Chapter 2  Food: Malthus on the Yangtze 49 Feeding one-fifth of humanity 53 A diet for a land of plenty 56 The meat of the problem 56 Hot and bothered .and thirsty 61 Rise of the machines? 63 From Happy Meals to deadly dinners 66 Astronauts get Tang, taikonauts get grass-fed beef 69 Chapter 3  Labor: Where did all the migrants go? 75 Socialist employers’ paradise 77 ...Becomes socialist employers’ paradise, lost 80 Migrants came, saw, and some are saying see ya later 81 Westward they go 84 Workers with attitude 87 Warmer, cuddlier policy for migrants 88 School of hard knocks 90 What happens when your key economic input shrinks? 91 Cashing out on the demographic dividend: an “uh oh” moment? 93 Public policy: A dash of creativity and wisdom needed 94 When 150 million workers unite 97 Part II Social Scarcity 99 Chapter 4  Welfare: Socialism with Chinese actually no, not socialism at all 101 Dismantling the welfare system 104 ...And stitching it back together 112 From youth bulge to geriatric bulge 117 Mo’ bling, mo’ honeys    125 Serving the people 128 Chapter 5  Education: Give me equality but not until after my son gets into Tsinghua 131 A thought experiment: Turkmenbashi for a day 131 No, seriously, there is a real thing called urban bias 132 The social equalizer that isn’t 135 From urban bias to urban household bias 142 Turn on, tune in, and study abroad: Life at the top 144 Running out of levers to pull 147 Chapter 6 Housing: Home is where the wallet is 151 Phat cribs and fatter wallets 153 An urban middle class is born 156 Jobs all around 157 Fat pancakes from the sky: the rich man’s boom 159 So happy together 160 When virtues become flaws 161 “I love you .after you’ve closed on that two-bedroom” 162 On the outside looking in 165 Socialist property rights with Chinese characteristics 167 Revenge of the capitalists 169 No taxation without representation .but with corruption 170 Squeezed 173 Part III Political Scarcity .177 Chapter 7 Ideology: The unbearable lightness of the Yellow River Spirit 179 A young nation-state 182 E pluribus mishmash 185 What comes after a revolution? 189 Forging the Deng Xiaoping consensus 190 New slogans, same consensus 193 The second identity crisis 195 Nationalism to the rescue (sort of) 198 Virtue is as virtuous does 200 Confucius as cultural export 204 Searching for a distinctly Chinese paradigm? 205 Chapter 8 Values: What would Confucius do? 209 Qunar (or where to)? 212 Software upgrades 213 Pursuit of happiness 215 Separate but unequal 219 Governing post-materialist China: The “what have you done for me lately” problem 223 It’s (mostly) sunny in Canton 224 Swatting flies 225 China pushes back on values 227 China the exceptional? 232 Chapter 9 Freedom: Keep on rockin’ in the firewalled world 237 A decade of harmony? 242 Stability Inc. 244 The “average Zhou” pushes back 249 From 100 flowers to 100 million weibos 254 Fast and furious .and deadly 255 Give me PM 2.5 or give me death 260 Coloring outside the lines 264 Conclusion 267 All your (economic) base are belong to us 267 Embracing change: the basecase 270 Growth without abundance 271 A “New Deal” with Chinese characteristics 274 Chinese governance 4.0 277 Baby steps 279 What if the Chinese dream is deferred? 283 Endnotes    287 Index 319