Presents an introduction to Bayesian statistics, presents an emphasis on Bayesian methods (prior and posterior), Bayes estimation, prediction, MCMC,Bayesian regression, and Bayesian analysis of statistical modelsof dependence, and features a focus on copulas for risk management
Introduction to Bayesian Estimation and Copula Models of Dependence emphasizes the applications of Bayesian analysis to copula modeling and equips readers with the tools needed to implement the procedures of Bayesian estimation in copula models of dependence. This book is structured in two parts: the first four chapters serve as a general introduction to Bayesian statistics with a clear emphasis on parametric estimation and the following four chapters stress statistical models of dependence with a focus of copulas.
A review of the main concepts is discussed along with the basics of Bayesian statistics including prior information and experimental data, prior and posterior distributions, with an emphasis on Bayesian parametric estimation. The basic mathematical background of both Markov chains and Monte Carlo integration and simulation is also provided. The authors discuss statistical models of dependence with a focus on copulas and present a brief survey of pre-copula dependence models. The main definitions and notations of copula models are summarized followed by discussions of real-world cases that address particular risk management problems.
In addition, this book includes:
• Practical examples of copulas in use including within the Basel Accord II documents that regulate the world banking system as well as examples of Bayesian methods within current FDA recommendations
• Step-by-step procedures of multivariate data analysis and copula modeling, allowing readers to gain insight for their own applied research and studies
• Separate reference lists within each chapter and end-of-the-chapter exercises within Chapters 2 through 8
• A companion website containing appendices: data files and demo files in Microsoft® Office Excel®, basic code in R, and selected exercise solutions
Introduction to Bayesian Estimation and Copula Models of Dependence is a reference and resource for statisticians who need to learn formal Bayesian analysis as well as professionals within analytical and risk management departments of banks and insurance companies who are involved in quantitative analysis and forecasting. This book can also be used as a textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses in Bayesian statistics and analysis.
ARKADY SHEMYAKIN, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Director of the Statistics Program at the University of St. Thomas. A member of the American Statistical Association and the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, Dr. Shemyakin's research interests include informationtheory, Bayesian methods of parametric estimation, and copula models in actuarial mathematics, finance, and engineering.
ALEXANDER KNIAZEV, PhD, is Associate Professor and Head of the Department of Mathematics at Astrakhan State University in Russia. Dr. Kniazev's research interests include representation theory of Lie algebras and finite groups, mathematical statistics, econometrics, and financial mathematics.
Table of Contents:
Introduction 1
How This Book Is Different: The Eric Tyson/Ray Brown Difference 1
Foolish Assumptions 2
Icons Used in This Book 3
Beyond the Book 4
Where to Go from Here 4
Part 1: Getting Started with Selling Your House 5
Chapter 1: Deciding to Sell 7
Figuring Out If You Really Need to Sell 9
Good reasons to stay 10
Reasons to consider selling 15
Knowing the Health of Your Housing Market 17
Selling in a depressed housing market 17
Selling during a strong market 21
Chapter 2: Selling and Your Personal Finances 23
Trading Up 23
Examining your housing budget 24
Figuring your expected expenses after trading up 27
Determining the financial impact on your future goals 31
Exploring the other costs of trading up 31
Making Retirement Housing Decisions 32
Trading down 32
Researching reverse mortgages 38
Tax Facts Sellers and Landlords Ought to Know 43
Chapter 3: Exploring the Economics of Selling 45
Estimating Proceeds of Sale 46
Estimated sale price 46
Closing costs 47
Mortgage payoff 48
Moving expenses 50
Putting it all together 51
Assessing the Financial Feasibility of a Move 52
Researching living costs and employment opportunities 52
Avoiding relocation traps 54
Chapter 4: Confronting Financing Issues 57
Financing Decisions When Trading Up 58
Choosing your mortgage 58
Financing improvements 59
The Trials and Tribulations of Seller Financing 61
Asking yourself why you’d ever want to be a lender 62
Deciding if seller financing is for you 63
Finding creditworthy buyers 64
Deciding what to charge 72
Protecting yourself legally 73
Part 2: Tactical Considerations 75
Chapter 5: Timing Is Everything 77
Timing the Sale of Your House 77
First peak season: Spring flowers and For Sale signs bloom 79
First valley: Summer doldrums 79
Second peak season: Autumn leaves and houses of every color 80
Death Valley: Real estate activity hibernates until spring 82
The Seller’s Quandary: Timing the Purchase of Your Home 82
Consolidating Your Sale and Purchase 83
Determine your house’s current value 83
Check your buying power 84
Familiarize yourself with the market 85
Take action 86
Chapter 6: For Sale By Owner 89
Eyeing the Potential FSBO Advantages 89
You want to save money on commissions 90
You may already have a ready, willing, and able buyer 90
You may know the house and neighborhood well 91
You may be more motivated than an agent 91
You like challenges 92
You want to be in control 93
Your house may sell itself 93
Focusing on Potential FSBO Disadvantages 93
You may not know how to price property 93
You may not know how to prepare your house for sale 94
You may not know how to market your property 94
You may not know how to separate real buyers from fakes 94
You may not have enough experience as a negotiator 95
You may get yourself into legal trouble 95
You may not know how to close the sale 95
Increasing Your Chances of Success 96
Educate yourself 96
Ensure that other team members are especially strong 96
Cooperate with agents 97
Financially qualify prospective buyers 97
Chapter 7: Your Real Estate Team 99
Teaming Up — A Winning Concept 99
Landing the Perfect Listing Agent 101
Understanding agent relationships 102
Recognizing the best listing agents 104
Choosing your listing agent 105
Achieving top performance from the winner 112
Bringing in the Broker 113
Handling House Inspectors 114
Arranging premarketing property inspections 114
Exploring the advantages of inspecting before marketing 115
Investigating inspectors 117
The Officiating Escrow Officer 120
Finding Financial and Tax Advisors 121
Locating a Good Lawyer 122
Choosing among lawyers 123
Working well with your lawyer 124
Chapter 8: Listing Contracts and Commissions 125
Understanding Listing Contracts 125
Considering the Types of Listings 127
Exclusive listings 127
Open listings 137
Examining Broker Compensation 139
Commissions 139
Net listings 144
Discount brokers 145
Preparing Seller Disclosure Statements 147
What information should you disclose? 147
An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure 152
Part 3: Getting Top Dollar When You Sell 155
Chapter 9: Preparing Your House for Sale 157
Handling Presale Preparation 158
Creating curb appeal 158
Exteriors attract, but interiors sell 160
Staging 162
Think Again: Avoiding Major Improvements 165
Chapter 10: Determining Your House’s Value 167
Defining Cost, Price, and Value 168
Value is elusive 168
Cost is history 169
Price is the here and now 170
Determining Fair Market Value (FMV) 170
Need-based pricing isn’t FMV 171
Median prices aren’t FMV 171
Using a Comparable Market Analysis 173
Playing with the numbers 176
Interpreting CMA adjustments and flaws 177
Considering appraisals versus CMAs 179
Bidding Wars 180
How buyers and sellers get to FMV 180
Why “buying a listing” ruins property pricing 181
Chapter 11: Price It Right and Buyers Will Come 183
Getting a Grasp on Pricing Methods 184
Four-phase pricing: Prevalent but ineffective 184
Pleasure-pleasure-panic pricing: Fast, top-dollar sales 185
Quantum pricing: An effective technique 188
Identifying Incentives and Gimmicks 190
Deal-making incentives 191
Deceptive gimmicks 191
Overpricing Your House 192
Can’t sell versus won’t sell 193
Three factors all buyers consider 193
Danger signs of overpricing 194
The foolproof way to correct overpricing 195
Placing the blame where it belongs 197
Part 4: the Brass Tacks of Selling Your House 199
Chapter 12: Marketing Your House 201
Advertising That Works 201
For Sale sign 202
Classified ads 203
Multiple listing service (MLS) 206
Listing statement 207
Computers 208
Word of mouth 208
Arranging Open Houses 209
Brokers’ opens 210
Weekend open houses 210
Showing Your Property 211
Preshowing preparations 212
The final showing 213
Chapter 13: Using Technology to Sell Your House 215
Knowing the Internet’s Limitations: The Net Alone Can’t Sell Your House 216
Ensure good web promo of your house 216
Knowing the truth about for-sale-by-owner (FSBO) sites 217
Realize the limits of valuing your house online 219
Relying on Technology to Determine Whether to Sell 220
Chapter 14: Negotiating Strategies for Sellers 223
Mastering Your Feelings 224
Putting emotions in their place 225
Gaining detachment through an agent 226
Following Some Basic Rules 227
Surviving the Bargaining Process 227
Receiving an offer to purchase 229
Dealing with contingencies — necessary uncertainty 231
Making a counteroffer 232
Negotiating from a Position of Strength 236
Handling multiple offers 237
Delaying presentation of offers 237
Setting guidelines for an orderly presentation process 238
Selecting the best offer 239
Negotiating from a Position of Weakness 241
Rejecting lowball offers 242
Considering other offers usually made in weak markets 244
Negotiating credits in escrow 247
Distinguishing Real Buyers from Fakes 251
Are the buyers creditworthy? 252
Are the buyers realistic? 252
Are the buyers motivated? 252
Do the buyers have a time frame? 252
Are the buyers cooperative? 253
Chapter 15: It Ain’t Over ’til the Check Clears 255
Entering the Neutral Territory of an Escrow 255
Understanding the role of the escrow officer 256
Maximizing your escrow 257
Avoiding the curse of December escrows 261
Letting Go of Your House 262
Moving daze 263
The final verification of condition 265
Surviving Seller’s Remorse or (Gasp) the Dreaded Double Whammy 265
Confronting your fears 266
Facing the ultimate test 267
Chapter 16: Income Tax Filings after the Sale 269
Profits from a House Sale 269
Defining profits 270
Excluding house sale profits from tax 270
Tax Filings Required after the Sale 271
Schedule D: Capital Gains and Losses 272
State income taxes on housing profits 275
Part 5: the Part of Tens 277
Chapter 17: Ten Things to Do After You Sell 279
Keep Copies of the Closing and Settlement Papers 279
Keep Proof of Improvements and Prior Purchases 280
Stash Your Cash in a Good Money Market Fund 280
Double-Check the Tax Rules for Excluding Tax on House Sale Profits 281
Cast a Broad Net When You Consider Your Next Home 282
Remember That Renting Can Be a Fine Strategy 282
Reevaluate Your Personal Finances When Things Change 283
Don’t Simply Rehire Your Listing Agent When You Repurchase 283
Think Through Your Next Down Payment 284
Remember to Send Change of Address Notices 284
Chapter 18: Ten Tips for Selling Rental Real Estate 287
Don’t Inadvertently Convert Your House into Income Property 287
Exercise Extra Care When You Sell Rental Property 289
Know How to Defer Your Investment Property Profits 289
Understand Your Local Market to Time Your Sale 290
Understand Opportunities for Adding Value 291
Maximize Your Property’s Rental Income 292
Minimize Your Property’s Expenses 292
Utilize Agents with Investment Property Experience 293
Visit Comparables and Review the Valuation Analysis 293
Work with Tax and Legal Advisors Who Understand Rental Property 294
Chapter 19: Answers for Ten Questions Home Buyers May Ask 295
What Do You Like Best and Least about Living Here? 296
Why Are You Selling This Lovely House? 296
How Much Did You Pay for This House? 297
How Did You Establish the Asking Price? 298
Have You Received Inspection Reports? 298
May I See Your Written Defect Disclosure Statement? 298
Are There Any Neighborhood Changes That May Affect the Home’s Desirability? 299
How Many Times in the Last Year Have You Called the Police and Why? 299
What Problems Have You Had with the House? 300
What Are the Local Public Schools Like? 301
Part 6: Appendixes 303
Appendix A: Sample Real Estate Purchase Contract 305
Appendix B: Example of a Good Inspection Report 317
Appendix C: Glossary 333
Index 349
