A revolutionary book that presents analytical tools for understanding why a particular disease is transmitted within a specific geographic area. A. Townsend Peterson, one of the pioneers of ecological niche modeling, presents a synthesis that illuminates new and more effective infectious disease mapping methods. His work—the culmination of twelve years of refinement—breaks new ground by integrating biogeographic and ecological factors with spatial models. Aimed at seasoned epidemiologists and public health experts, this interdisciplinary book explains the conceptual and technical underpinnings of Peterson’s approach while simultaneously describing the potentially enormous benefits of his modeling method. Peterson treats disease transmission areas for what they are—distributions of species. The book argues that complex, fragmented, and highly irregular disease patterns can only be understood when underlying environmental drivers are considered. The result is an elegant modeling approach that challenges static spatial models and provides a framework for recasting disease mapping. Anyone working in the area of disease transmission, particularly those employing predictive maps, will find Peterson’s book both inspiring and indispensable.

Table of Contents:
Preface Acknowledgments 1. Introduction Ecology and Biogeography This Book Conclusions Part I: Distributional Ecology 2. General Conceptual Framework for Species' Distributions Historical Background A General Schema of Distributional Ecology Disease Systems Conclusions 3. Status of Data for Understanding Disease Distributions Disease Case-Occurrence Data Sets Relevant Biodiversity Occurrence Data Sets Georeferencing The Meaning of No Records Conclusions 4. Current Tools for Understanding Disease Distributions The Current Toolkit Shortcomings of the Current Methodologies Conclusions Part II: Disease Modeling Basics 5. Modifications to the Basic Framework Disease Peculiarities Real-World Examples: West Nile Virus and Others Implications for Disease Modeling Conclusions 6. Modeling Components versus Outcomes Disease Transmission Systems as Sets of Interacting Species Black-Box Approaches Component-Based Approaches Combined Approaches Conclusions 7. Space-Only versus Space-and-Environment Models Examples and Illustrations Contrasting the Two Types of Models Conclusions Part III: Preparing the Data 8. Garbage-In-Garbage-Out Principle Problems with Data Quality Biases Created by Geography Conclusions 9. Assembling Occurrence Data General Considerations Obtaining and Improving Occurrence Data Compatibility and Study Design Conclusions 10. Assembling Environmental Data Relevance to Species' Distributions General Considerations Modifiable Areal Unit Problem Specific Data Resources Conclusions 11. Study Areas and BAM Defining the Area M Sampling Considerations BAM Configurations Details of M and A for Model Transfers Conclusions Part IV: Developing Models 12. Calibrating Niche Models Introduction to Niche Models Nuts and Bolts Calibrating the "Best" Model Transferring and Extrapolating Characterizing Ecological Niches Conclusions 13. Processing Raw Outputs into Useful Maps Choosing Appropriate Thresholds From Potential to Actual Distributions Projecting and Transferring Models Conclusions 14. Evaluating Niche Models Controversies and Inappropriate Approaches Basic Concepts The Confusion Matrix and Its Implications Binary Model Evaluation Continuous Model Evaluation Model Evaluation and Model Performance Conclusions 15. Developing Risk Maps Initial Estimates Risk Modifiers Type I versus Type II Errors Overlay, Testing, and Simulation Conclusions Part V: Examples of Applications 16. Identifying Risk Factors Black-Box Disease Ecology Vector Ecology Human Variables Improvements and Future Steps Spatial Interpolation and Prediction Black-Box Examples Component-Based Examples Improvements and Future Steps 18. Identifying Species Involved in Transmission Cycles Identifying Guilty Species Understanding Transmission Systems Detecting Movement Vectors Complete Unknowns Improvements and Future Steps 19. Responses to Environmental Change Early Mechanistic Models Empirical Niche Model Projections of Climate Change Mechanistic versus Empirical Model Improvements and Future Steps 20. Conclusions Literature Cited Index