Praise for the First Edition “If there is anything you want to know, or remind yourself, about probabilities, then look no further than this comprehensive, yet wittily written and enjoyable, compendium of how to apply probability calculations in real-world situations.” - Keith Devlin, Stanford University, National Public Radio’s “Math Guy” and author of The Math Gene and The Unfinished Game From probable improbabilities to regular irregularities, Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives, Second Edition investigates the often surprising effects of risk and chance in our lives. Featuring a timely update, the Second Edition continues to be the go-to guidebook for an entertaining presentation on the mathematics of chance and uncertainty. The new edition develops the fundamental mathematics of probability in a unique, clear, and informal way so readers with various levels of experience with probability can understand the little numbers found in everyday life. Illustrating the concepts of probability through relevant and engaging real-world applications, the Second Edition features numerous examples on weather forecasts, DNA evidence, games and gambling, and medical testing. The revised edition also includes: The application of probability in finance, such as option pricing The introduction of branching processes and the extinction of family names An extended discussion on opinion polls and Nate Silver’s election predictions Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives, Second Edition is an ideal reference for anyone who would like to obtain a better understanding of the mathematics of chance, as well as a useful supplementary textbook for students in any course dealing with probability.

Table of Contents:
Preface ix Preface to the First Edition xi 1 Computing Probabilities: Right Ways and Wrong Ways 1 The Probabilist 1 The Probabilist’s Toys and Language 4 The Probabilist’s Rule Book 10 Independence, Airplanes, and Russian Peasants 15 Conditional Probability, Swedish TV, and British Courts 20 Liar, Liar 25 Car Dealers and Color Blindness 29 Shuttlecocks and Spaghetti Westerns 34 Combinatorics, Pastrami, and Poetry 40 The Von Trapps and The Binomial Distribution 45 Final Word 51 2 Surprising Probabilities: When Intuition Struggles 53 Boys, Girls, Aces, and Colored Cards 53 Goats and Gloats 58 Happy Birthday 61 Typical Atypicalities 66 The British Snob and I 72 Strategery 75 Final Word 78 3 Tiny Probabilities: Why Are They So Hard to Escape? 79 Probable Improbabilities 79 Saddam and I 83 Taking Tiny Risks 89 A Million-to-One Shot, Doc, Million to One! 91 Monsieur Poisson and the Mysterious Number 37 93 Clumps in Space 98 Final Word 100 4 Backward Probabilities: The Reverend Bayes to Our Rescue 101 Driving Miss Daisy 101 Bayes, Balls, and Boys (and Girls) 104 Bayes and My Green Card 107 Objection Your Honor 112 Ornithology 122 Final Word 125 5 Beyond Probabilities: What to Expect 127 Great Expectations 127 The Price is Right (Maybe) 134 Blood, Sweat, and Theory 137 Good Things Come to Those Who Wait 140 Expect the Unexpected 145 Exponential Growth toward Extinction 149 Size Matters (and Length, and Age) 159 Mean, Median, Mode 165 Deviant Behavior 171 Final Word 176 6 Inevitable Probabilities: Two Fascinating Mathematical Results 177 Alea Iacta Est, Over and Over 177 Even-Steven? The Law Misunderstood 181 Coin Tosses and Freeway Congestion 188 Let’s Get Serious 195 Bells and Bread 200 How a Toronto Quincunx Changed My Life 204 Final Word 206 7 Gambling Probabilities: Why Donald Trump Is Richer than You 209 French Letters 209 Roulette: A Classy Way to Waste Your Money 214 Craps: Not so Dicey after All 219 Blackjack: Money for Mnemonics 222 Math for Losers 227 Win Money and Lose Friends 234 Final Word 245 8 Guessing Probabilities: Enter the Statisticians 247 Lies, Damned Lies, and Beautiful Lies? 247 4 Out of 10 Like the President 19 Times Out of 20 251 Polls Gone Wild 257 The Silver Lining 262 The Lawsuit and the Lurker 265 Football Players and Geyser Eruptions 271 Snooping in the Abbot’s Garden 278 Final Word 284 9 Faking Probabilities: Computer Simulation 285 Mahogany Dice and Modular Arithmetic 285 Random and Not-So-Random Digits 293 Number One is Number One 294 Is Random Really Random? 297 Final Word 302 Index 305