This book provides a comprehensive yet accessible overview of land systems vulnerability assessment in Asia - fundamental to the understanding of the link between global change, environmental sustainability and human wellbeing. The extent and intensity of human interactions with the environment have increased spectacularly since the Industrial Revolution. Thus, the global change research community and development practitioners increasingly recognize the need to address the adverse consequences of changes taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere and the implications for society.  With a focus on Asia, this book provides an overview of the vulnerability of land systems and the subsequent multiple stressors in this region. The book offers a discussion surrounding the potential causal processes that affect land systems vulnerability and our capacity to cope with different perturbations. It also identifies factors that help to integrate vulnerability assessment into policy and decision-making. • Addresses the complex issues arising from human–environment interactions that cannot be satisfactorily dealt with by core disciplinary methods alone. • Key coverage of a variety of topics from the vulnerability of smallholder agriculture and urban systems to the impact of socioeconomic processes at the sub-regional level. • Coverage of the causal processes that affect land systems vulnerability and capacity to cope with different perturbations are documented. • Focus on integrating vulnerability assessment into policies and decision-making • Includes contributions from leading academics in the field.

Table of Contents:
Editors’ Introductions xiii List of Contributors xv Preface xix 1 Land Systems Vulnerability 1 Ademola K. Braimoh and He Qing Huang 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Overview of the book 3 Acknowledgements 5 References 5 Part I Hazards and Vulnerability 2 Drought and Extreme Climate Stress on Human-Environment Systems in the Gobi Desert Mongolia 11 Troy Sternberg 2.1 Introduction 11 2.1.1 Social ecological systems 12 2.1.2 Mongolian rangelands 13 2.2 Methods 14 2.2.1 Study area 14 2.2.2 Methodology 14 2.3 Results 15 2.3.1 Spatial continuity of droughts 15 2.3.2 Dzud of 1999–2001 16 2.3.3 Dzud and drought: non-drought years 17 2.4 Discussion 19 2.4.1 Resilience 20 2.5 Conclusion 22 Acknowledgements 22 References 22 3 Vulnerability and Resilience of the Mongolian Pastoral Social-Ecological Systems to Multiple Stressors 27 Dennis Ojima, Togtokh Chuluun and Myagmarsuren Altanbagana 3.1 Introduction 27 3.2 The current situation 29 3.2.1 Climate conditions 29 3.2.2 Water resources 30 3.2.3 The nomadic system 31 3.2.4 Livestock changes 31 3.3 Analysis of vulnerability of critical ecosystem services 32 3.3.1 Vulnerability index of pastoral systems 32 3.3.2 Integrated zud index 32 3.3.3 Rangeland use index 33 3.3.4 Assessment of rangeland vulnerability to climate and land-use changes 34 3.4 Coping scenarios 34 3.5 Summary and conclusion 37 3.5.1 A win-win model 38 Acknowledgements 38 References 39 4 Vulnerability of Pastoral Communities in Central Mongolia to Climate and Land-Use Changes 41 T. Chuluun, M. Altanbagana, S. Davaanyam, B. Tserenchunt and D. Ojima 4.1 Introduction 41 4.2 Study sites and methodology 43 4.3 Research results 45 4.4 The results of a social survey related to the ‘dryland development paradigm’ 46 4.5 Pastoral social-ecological scenarios 49 4.6 Policy-related social survey 56 4.7 Discussion 59 4.8 Conclusion 60 Acknowledgements 61 References 61 5 Vulnerability Assessment Diagram: A Case Study on Drought in Middle Inner Mongolia, China 63 Xiaoqian Liu, He Yin and Ademola K. Braimoh 5.1 Introduction 63 5.2 An integrated diagram for vulnerability assessment: the VSD model 64 5.3 Case study using the VSD model 66 5.3.1 The study area 66 5.3.2 Vulnerability profile at the county level 67 5.4 Results and discussion 69 5.4.1 Relative impact of the components on the vulnerability index 69 5.4.2 Model calibration 71 5.5 Conclusion 72 References 74 6 Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Arid Regions: a Case Study of Western Rajasthan, India 77 R.B. Singh and Ajay Kumar 6.1 Introduction 77 6.2 Climate change scenarios: global, national and local levels 78 6.3 Study area 80 6.4 Research methodology 80 6.5 Results and discussions 82 6.5.1 Climate variability 82 6.5.2 Vulnerability assessment 82 6.5.3 Vulnerability 86 6.6 Conclusion 89 References 89 7 Dendrogeomorphological and Sedimentological Analysis of Debris Flow Hazards in the Northern Zailiiskiy Alatau, Tien Shan Mountains, Kazakhstan 91 Vanessa Winchester, David G. Passmore, Stephan Harrison, Alaric Rae, Igor Severskiy and Nina V. Pimankina 7.1 Introduction 91 7.2 Study area 93 7.3 Methods and materials 93 7.3.1 Geomorphology and sedimentology 93 7.3.2 Archive datasets 96 7.3.3 Dendrogeomorphology 96 7.3.4 Cross-dating, reference series identification and skeleton plotting 96 7.3.5 Seedling establishment, growth rates below coring height and earthquakes 99 7.4 Results 100 7.4.1 Growth rate and establishment periods 100 7.4.2 Kumbelsu Creek 102 7.4.3 Sedimentology, geomorphology and dating of fluvial terraces, fans and debris flows in the Ozernaya valley 102 7.4.4 Debris flow events in the Ozernaya Valley and archival records 104 7.5 Discussion 107 7.6 Conclusions 110 Acknowledgements 111 References 111 Part II Land-use Change: Modelling and Impact Assessment 8 Regional Scenarios and Simulated Land-Cover Changes in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia 117 Jefferson Fox, John B. Vogler, Omer L. Sen, Alan L. Ziegler and Thomas W. Giambelluca 8.1 Introduction 117 8.2 Methods 119 8.2.1 Baseline land-cover classification 120 8.2.2 CLUE-s model 121 8.2.3 Land-cover allocation 129 8.3 Results 129 8.4 Discussion and conclusions 135 Acknowledgements 138 References 138 9 Land-use Change and its Impacts on Agricultural Productivity in China 143 Huimin Yan, He Qing Huang, Xiangzheng Deng and Jiyuan Liu 9.1 Introduction 143 9.2 Land-use data 144 9.3 Methods for estimating changes in agricultural productivity 145 9.3.1 NPP estimation with the GLO-PEM model 145 9.3.2 Agro-ecological zones (AEZ) model 146 9.3.3 Calculating agricultural productivity change caused by land use change 146 9.4 Agricultural productivity change caused by cropland transformation 147 9.4.1 Cropland transformation 147 9.4.2 Contributions of cropland area change to agricultural productivity 148 9.4.3 Agricultural productivity change caused by major land use change types 150 9.4.4 Changes in potential agricultural productivity due to cropland conversions 151 9.5 Summary 152 Acknowledgements 152 References 152 10 Long-Term Land-Cover Change in the Amur River Basin 155 Shigeko Haruyama, Yoshitaka Masuda and Akihiko Kondoh 10.1 Introduction 155 10.2 Outline of study area 156 10.3 The dataset 157 10.3.1 NOAA/AVHRR PAL dataset 157 10.3.2 Statistical materials used in the agricultural and field investigation 157 10.4 Method of study 158 10.4.1 Analysis of secular variation from 1982 to 2000 158 10.5 Results and consideration 159 10.5.1 Analysis of secular variation in land cover from 1982 to 2000 159 10.5.2 Verification of validity of PAL data analysis 162 10.6 Summary 163 Acknowledgements 163 References 163 11 Simulating Land-use Change in China from a Global Perspective 165 Xuefeng Cui, Mark Rounsevell, Yuan Jiang, Muyi Kang, Paul Palmer, Wen Chen and Terence Dawson 11.1 Introduction 165 11.2 Land use in China 166 11.3 Global perspectives 168 11.4 Model and data 170 11.5 Model results 171 11.5.1 Historical simulation 171 11.5.2 Future ‘business as usual’ scenario 173 11.6 Discussion and conclusions 176 Acknowledgements 176 References 176 12 Sustainable Land Use Planning in West Asia Using MicroLEIS Decision Support Systems 179 Farzin Shahbazi, Maria Anaya-Romero, Ademola K. Braimoh and Diego De la Rosa 12.1 Introduction 179 12.2 Materials and methods 181 12.2.1 Study area 181 12.2.2 Climate 181 12.2.3 Benchmark soils 181 12.2.4 The MicroLEIS technology 183 12.3 Modelling with MicroLEIS in the Ahar region 185 12.3.1 Arable land identification 185 12.3.2 Semi-natural habitats 186 12.3.3 Crop diversification 187 12.3.4 Soil productivity capability evaluation 190 12.3.5 Soil fertility capability evaluation 191 12.4 Conclusions 191 Acknowledgements 193 References 193 13 Impacts of Agricultural Land Change on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in Kahayan Watershed, Central Kalimantan 195 J.S. Rahajoe, L. Alhamd, E.B. Walujo, H.S. Limin, M.S. Suneetha, A.K. Braimoh and T. Kohyama 13.1 Introduction 195 13.2 Study locations and methods 197 13.2.1 Study sites: Bawan village, Central Kalimantan 197 13.2.2 Participatory rural appraisal 200 13.3 Results and discussion 200 13.3.1 Current status of the Kahayan watershed 200 13.3.2 Biodiversity and forest products in Bawan village 201 13.3.3 Ecosystem services in Bawan village 206 13.3.4 Rubber plantations in Bawan village 206 13.3.5 Changes in farming systems and agricultural produce 210 13.4 Conclusion 212 Acknowledgements 212 References 212 14 Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Urban Structure in Shanghai 215 Wenze Yue, Peilei Fan and Jiaguo Qi 14.1 Introduction 215 14.2 Theoretical framework, study area, data, and methodology 216 14.2.1 Theoretical framework 216 14.2.2 Study area 218 14.2.3 Data and methodology 219 14.3 Findings 219 14.3.1 Urban evolution of Shanghai 219 14.3.2 Urban transformation at the district level 222 14.4 Discussion 226 14.4.1 Economic restructuring and globalization 227 14.4.2 Changing population profile and impact on the housing market 228 14.4.3 The role of the multi-scaled state 229 14.5 Conclusion 230 Acknowledgements 232 References 232 Part III Institutions 15 Governing Ecosystem Services from Upland Watersheds in Southeast Asia 237 Louis Lebel and Rajesh Daniel 15.1 Introduction 237 15.2 Plans 238 15.2.1 Protected areas 238 15.2.2 Forest and watershed classifications 239 15.2.3 Participatory land-use planning 241 15.3 Rules 242 15.3.1 Property rights and land tenure 242 15.3.2 Community-based management 243 15.3.3 Logging concessions 244 15.3.4 Logging bans 245 15.4 Incentives 246 15.4.1 Payments for ecosystem services 246 15.4.2 Certification 248 15.5 Information 249 15.6 Discussion 250 15.7 Conclusions 252 Acknowledgements 253 References 253 16 Socio-Economic Impacts of a Wetland Restoration Program in China’s Poyang Lake Region 261 Fen Li, Lin Zhen, He Qing Huang, Yunjie Wei, Li Yang and Sandra Uthes 16.1 Introduction 261 16.2 Study area 263 16.2.1 Background 263 16.3 Methods 264 16.3.1 Analysis of land use and economic data 264 16.3.2 Stakeholder analysis 264 16.3.3 Household surveys 265 16.3.4 Farmers’ willingness to accept eco-compensation (WTA) 265 16.3.5 Estimation of the eco-compensation burden of the local governments 266 16.4 Results 267 16.4.1 Land use changes 267 16.4.2 Changes in the economic structure 268 16.4.3 Stakeholder groups 269 16.4.4 Farmers’ willingness to accept eco-compensation 270 16.4.5 Eco-compensation burden of the local governments 272 16.5 Discussion 272 16.6 Conclusions 274 Acknowledgements 275 References 275 17 China’s Sloping Land Conversion Program: Are the Farmers Paid Enough? 277 Shubhechchha Thapa, Xing Lu and Ademola K. Braimoh 17.1 Introduction 277 17.2 The study area 278 17.3 Data sources and analysis 279 17.4 Results and discussion 280 17.4.1 Quantitative data on land-cover change 280 17.4.2 Carbon dynamics in the landscape 281 17.4.3 Landscape value 281 17.5 Conclusion 282 References 283 18 Community-Based Peatland Management for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Based on Fire-Free Land Preparation 285 Bambang Hero Saharjo 18.1 Introduction 285 18.2 Greenhouse gas emissions 286 18.2.1 Southeast Asian greenhouse gases emissions 286 18.2.2 Indonesian greenhouse gas emissions 287 18.3 The current Indonesian forest fire situation 289 18.4 Greenhouse gas emissions reduction 290 18.4.1 Smoke management 290 18.4.2 Greenhouse gas emission reduction through land preparation without fire: an example from the community 291 18.4.3 Peatland management and restoration of organic soils 295 18.5 Conclusion 295 Acknowledgements 295 References 296 19 Structuring Climate Finance for Adaptation Measures in Vulnerable Ecosystems: Lessons from India 297 A. Damodaran 19.1 Introduction 297 19.2 Approach 298 19.3 Methodology of field studies 298 19.4 Co-benefits approach to adaptation financing and equity 299 19.5 Adaptation gradients 301 19.6 Adaptation possibility trends for agro and coastal ecosystems: preliminary assessment 302 19.7 Financing systems for adaptation to climate change 303 19.8 Evidence from the study area 306 19.9 Lessons and implications: summing up 307 References 308 20 Scientific Uncertainty and Policy Making: How can Communications Contribute to a Better Marriage in the Global Change Arena? 311 Gabriela Litre 20.1 A case study: the establishment of marine reserves off the Californian coast 312 20.2 A matter of trust 313 20.3 Communicating scientific uncertainty 315 20.3.1 Quantifying uncertainties 315 20.3.2 Communicating the quantified uncertainties 316 20.4 The need for a new language 316 20.5 Changing worlds 317 20.6 A learning experience 318 Acknowledgements 319 References 319 21 Planning for Resilience: the Quest for Learning and Adaptation 323 Fernando Teigao dos Santos 21.1 Introductory insights 323 21.2 The global ‘carousel’ context 324 21.3 Looking at the resilience framework 325 21.4 Planning for resilience 328 21.5 ‘Command-and-control’ vs ‘learning-and-adaptation’ 329 21.6 The strategic SPARK example 331 21.7 Final considerations 332 Acknowledgements 333 References 333 22 Conclusion 337 He Qing Huang and Ademola K. Braimoh 22.1 Improving understanding in areas lacking data 337 22.2 Highlighting the effects of scale 339 22.3 Validating the conceptual framework for vulnerability assessment 339 22.4 Land system vulnerability in other parts of the world 339 22.5 Roads ahead 340 22.6 Final remarks 341 References 341 Index 343