An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of both scientists and the lay public. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology, though enormously productive and influential over the past century, is approaching a crisis. The deep and troubling divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research, and between research and practice, are reflections of this underlying problem. The author outlines a path toward the re-engineering of data analysis to help close these gaps and accelerate scientific discovery.  Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty presents essential information and novel ideas that should be of interest to anyone concerned about the future of scientific research. The book is especially pertinent for professionals in statistics and related fields, including practicing and research clinicians, biomedical and social science researchers, business leaders, and policy-makers.

Table of Contents:
PREFACE xi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xv 1 THE OPPOSITE OF CERTAINTY 1 Two Dead Ends 2 Analytical Engines 4 What is Probability?  6 Uncertainty 9 Willful Ignorance 12 Toward a New Science 15 2 A QUIET REVOLUTION 19 Thinking the Unthinkable 21 Inventing Probability 24 Statistics 27 The Taming of Chance 31 The Ignorance Fallacy 34 The Dilemma of Science 35 3 A MATTER OF CHANCE 41 Origins 43 Probability 44 The Famous Correspondence 56 What Did Not Happen Next 60 AgainstThe Odds 64 4 HARDLY TOUCHED UPON 71 The Mathematics of Chance 73 Empirical Frequencies 82 A Quantum of Certainty 100 5 A MATHEMATICIAN OF BASEL 114 Publication at Last 116 The Art of Conjecturing 117 A Tragic Ending 142 6 A DEFECT OF CHARACTER 147 Man Without a Country 150 A Fraction of Chances 165 7 CLASSICAL PROBABILITY 171 Revolutionary Reverends 173 From Chances to Probability 194 8 BABEL 213 The Great Unraveling 216 Probability as a Relative Frequency 219 Probability as a Logical Relationship 228 Probability as a Subjective Assessment 239 Probability as a Propensity 247 9 PROBABILITY AND REALITY 253 The Razor’s Edge 255 What Fisher Knew 257 What Reference Class?  262 A Postulate of Ignorance 270 Laplace’s Error 279 10 THE DECISION FACTORY 283 Beyond Moral Certainty 284 Decisions, Decisions 298 Machine-Made Knowledge 309 11 THE LOTTERY IN SCIENCE 312 Scientific Progress 313 Fooled by Causality 319 Statistics for Humans: Bias or Ambiguity?  331 Regression toward the Mean 339 12 TRUST, BUT VERIFY 346 A New Problem 347 Trust,… 354 …But Verify 357 The Future 363 Mindful Ignorance 368 APPENDIX: THE PASCAL–FERMAT CORRESPONDENCE OF 1654 373 NOTES 387 BIBLIOGRAPHY 415 INDEX 429